Inflation has eroded pay across the UK since 2019. We identify which professions have suffered the biggest real-terms salary cuts — and which have kept pace.
Between 2019 and 2026, cumulative UK inflation (CPI) ran at approximately 30–35%. A salary that didn't increase by at least that amount over the same period has suffered a real-terms pay cut — meaning the worker can buy significantly less today than they could in 2019. Here's which professions have lost the most in real terms.
| Sector / Role | Approx. nominal pay rise | Real-terms change | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| NHS nurses (AfC Band 5) | ~22% | -8% to -10% | Real-terms cut |
| Teachers (England MPS) | ~28% | -4% to -6% | Near-flat in real terms |
| Police officers | ~20% | -10% to -12% | Significant real cut |
| Civil servants (Grade 7) | ~18% | -12% to -14% | Significant real cut |
| Prison officers | ~18% | -12% to -14% | Significant real cut |
| Care workers | ~35% | +2% to +3% | Broadly maintained (NLW rises) |
| Software engineers | ~40% | +6% to +8% | Real-terms gain |
| Data scientists | ~45% | +10% to +12% | Significant real gain |
| HGV drivers | ~38% | +4% to +6% | Real-terms gain (shortage-driven) |
| Electricians / plumbers | ~35% | +2% to +4% | Broadly maintained |
| Finance (senior roles) | ~35% | +2% to +3% | Broadly maintained |
The most severe real-terms cuts have been concentrated in the public sector. Police officers, civil servants, and prison officers have all seen nominal pay rises well below inflation since 2019, meaning they can afford significantly less in 2026 than they could seven years ago.
NHS clinical staff fared better after a series of pay disputes and settlements, but many nurses and allied health professionals still ended the period in real-terms deficit. The 2023 NHS pay deal — worth around 5% for most staff — partially offset losses but didn't fully restore 2019 purchasing power.
Teaching is an interesting case. After years of real-terms cuts through the 2010s, the government made significant efforts to restore teacher pay from 2023 onwards, lifting the NQT salary to £31,650. Teachers are closer to breaking even in real terms than most other public sector workers — though many experienced teachers who were on higher points of the scale feel their relative position has worsened as NQT pay caught up.
Technology workers — particularly software engineers, data scientists, and cybersecurity professionals — have seen nominal salary growth significantly outpace inflation since 2019. Demand for tech skills has been consistently strong, and the global talent market for remote tech work has pushed UK salaries upward. Data scientists in particular have seen exceptional pay growth driven by the AI and machine learning boom.
HGV driver shortages — which became acute in 2021–22 — forced employers to offer significant pay rises to attract and retain drivers. This pushed HGV driver salaries up by 35–40% from 2019 to 2026, broadly keeping pace with inflation and in some cases exceeding it. This is an example of supply-demand dynamics overcoming the usual wage suppression seen in manual occupations.
If you've been in the same role since 2019 and your cumulative pay rises total less than 30%, you have taken a real-terms pay cut — regardless of what the nominal figures show. The best remedy is to benchmark your current salary against the market rate and negotiate accordingly. Workers who have moved employers during this period have generally fared better than those who stayed in place.
Check where your pay stands today against current ONS data for your role and region.
Check Your Salary →Police officers, civil servants, and prison officers have suffered the largest real-terms pay cuts — with nominal rises of around 18–20% against cumulative inflation of approximately 32%.
Yes — NHS nurses received nominal pay rises of approximately 22% since 2019, against cumulative inflation of around 32%, resulting in a real-terms pay cut of approximately 8–10%.
Software engineers, data scientists, and HGV drivers have broadly kept pace with or beaten inflation. The tech sector in particular has seen strong real-terms salary growth driven by skills shortages.
Cumulative UK CPI inflation between 2019 and 2026 is approximately 30–32%. A salary of £30,000 in 2019 would need to be approximately £39,600–£39,600 in 2026 to maintain the same purchasing power.